Baseline

A baseline is a metric's reference value, measured over a stable period, that later results get compared against — a new creative, a price change, a new geo, a new PWA version — to tell a real improvement apart from random noise.

How a baseline gets set

First, run the current version (creative, landing page, price) on enough traffic to lock in its metrics — CR, eCPM, ROI — as the reference point. Only after that do you run a test against a change and compare the result to that specific number, not to a gut feeling or numbers from a different period.

Baselines in PWA arbitrage

Without a clear baseline, it's easy to mistake a random swing in conversion for a real win from a new PWA version or creative, and spend budget chasing an improvement that isn't actually there. APEX's visitor-sticky split tests let you hold the current version as the baseline and compare a new variant against it fairly, on the same traffic, at the same time.

FAQ

How much traffic do you need before locking in a baseline?
There's no fixed number, but it needs to be enough that the metric isn't swinging day to day — in practice that's usually a few hundred conversions, not a handful of clicks.
How often should a baseline be updated?
As soon as the current version reliably beats the old one on the metric that matters, it becomes the new baseline for the next test — there's little point holding onto the same baseline for months once the creative has clearly gone stale.
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